Ladies and gentlemen, it’s that time of year again: time for March Madness. It’s time to break out the brackets, and bunker down for some big-time upset picks. Don’t worry if your bracket is consistently busted year in and year out, I’ve got your back. As the winner of a pool five out of the last six years, (George Mason’s Final Four run in 2006 being the lone blemish on the card), I’ve put on the hard hat and work boots and methodically combed through this year’s bracket, perhaps the toughest since the 2006 surprise that left everyone’s bracket in complete shambles. Want to know the secrets to picking a great bracket, and looking inside the anatomy of what makes an upset? Sorry, I can’t share all my secrets, in the book but here’s a peek into a few factors to consider.
First consider the trends of the tournament and recent percentages of the success of certain teams. Looking at the upsets, the most popular is the 5-12 matchup. Over the past five years, the trend has been that a 12 seed has made it to the sweet 16 80 percent of the time, or four out of five years.
This year, however, there is perhaps not a true clear cut 5-12 upset, but we’ll get to that later. Second is never pick a 14-16 seed to win. A 16 seed has never won a first round game and only three times in the tournament’s history has a 15 seed been successful. Same goes for a 14 seed who only wins nine percent of the time, less then one tenth of all the 3-14 matchups.
Also, when sticking with the upset specials, look to advance at least one 10, 12, and 13 seed in your bracket. There has been one of each of these seeds in the second round 80 percent of the time over the last five years. Nine and 11 seeds are also money in the tournament with at least one of each advancing 100 percent of the time over the past five years.
One more key trend towards the top of your seeding in the bracket is the three seeds. 100 percent of the time over the last five years, a three seed has made it to the Elite 8. A few other clues when making picks are to look at a team’s non-conference schedule from early in the year and see if they had success outside their own league. This is helpful for teams outside the major conferences such as the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-10,Big 12 and A-10. These can aid you in determining whether some of the lower seeds have already played any of the teams or big dogs from these major conferences, and how they stacked up against a team similar to who they will be facing in the tournament.
Another factor to take into consideration is a team’s success over its past 10 to 15 games. If a team has won less than six or so of their games before the big dance, it’s probably safe to say they are on a downward slide. If a team also has a losing record on the road or at neutral sites, this also is a red flag as to how they will perform in the tourney. Looking at a team’s SOS, strength of schedule, is somewhat important when looking for an upset pick. An example of this would be Murray St. The Racers come from the OVC league and have an SOS of 322. They have not played any team with a legitimate resume. Again, I’m not saying take this into account as a major issue, but just have it as a consideration when looking at some of the smaller teams in the tournament when picking upsets.
Finally, when picking upsets, don’t go overboard. On average, there were about eight upsets per year in the last five years of the tournament in the first round. Also, be careful to not advance your first round upsets too far into the draw after the second or third round. It’s rare to see a team lower then a nine seed get to the Elite 8.
So without further ado, here are my 2010 NCAA basketball March Madness picks.
Let’s start in the Midwest.
Looking at potential first round upsets, I see three in this region. In the 8-9 game, with UNLV vs. Northern Iowa, the Runnin’ Rebels are 3-6 when they score less then 70. URI is among the best defensive teams in the country, holding most opponents in the mid -50s in points per game. I like URI to pull the upset and grind it out over UNLV.
The second upset in the Midwest is in the 6-11 game between Tennessee and San Diego State. The Vols are one of the most up-and -down teams in the nation. Will they show up against a frontcourt- strong Aztecs team that is more than capable of pulling the upset? I’ll say no, and take San Diego State in the upset at 6-11. Another upset from this region is in the 7-10 game, with Georgia Tech toppling Oklahoma St. Neither team has had a very good conference record and have both been suspect on the road this year. I’ll take a Yellow Jacket team, led by a plethora of NBA talented players like Derrick Favors, to pound away inside and send the Cowboys packing.
In the rest of the first round I like Kansas, Michigan State, Maryland, Georgetown and Ohio State to come out victorious. In the second round, look for Kansas to cruise, my tournament sweetheart every year in Michigan State to outshoot and outrebound a Maryland team that can’t rebound, Georgetown to bring San Diego State back to earth and beat them, and Ohio State to move on as well. In the Elite 8, Georgetown’s team play will be too much for Ohio State’s one man band of Evan Turner, with the Hoyas moving on along with Kansas. Look for the Jayhawks to advance onto the Final Four with superior inside- outside play from Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry.
In the West region, look for one major first round upset; in the 5-12 matchup between UTEP and Butler. The Battlin’ Miners are amazingly strong inside, and can shut down Butler’s limited inside play and slow their outside shooting. The Miners are a better team than a 12 seed, so look for them to pick up the upset over a Butler team that hasn’t faced a team this talented inside all year.
The rest of the first round plays out pretty simple. Vermont might be able to keep it close with Syracuse for a half, but ‘Cuse will roll in the second. Ditto with Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Pitt, BYU, and Kansas State.
In the second round, Gonzaga could challenge Syracuse and keep it close, but the 2-3 zone of Jim Boeheim will be too much and ‘Cuse moves on in addition to Kansas State. The other two second round games will be upsets. UTEP is amazingly strong inside and can easily compete with Vanderbuilt up front. They pull the upset and become that 12th seed to make the Sweet 16. In the second game, Xavier, a team that is always strong in the dance, takes down an offensively-challenged Pitt squad.
Syracuse and Kansas State will advance to the Elite 8 and Syracuse with that 2-3 zone will represent the west in the Final Four as injured center Arinze Onuaku should be back in time for the sweet 16.
The East region is perhaps the least upset-minded region out of all four. The only upset I see happening here is the 7-10 game between Clemson and Missouri. Clemson is a big, physical ACC team that can hang and bang with the best of them. The problem is Missouri is a run-and-gun team that plays an offense known as “The fastest 40 minutes in basketball.” I like Mizzou to physically wear down Clemson and upset the Tigers and their coach Al Skinner, who has NEVER won a first round game in the big dance in almost ten tries.
The rest of this bracket should be pretty straight forward. Kentucky, Texas, Temple, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, and West Virginia to advance. A lot of people are calling for a Cornell upset of Temple, but I’m not buying it. The Owls are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but Cornell is one of the best shooting teams; I’ll take defense every time.
In the second round, I like Kentucky to overpower Texas. Wisconsin and Temple play a very similar defensive grind-it-out style of game, and the Badgers are better at it. I’ll take Wisconsin in that one. I like Marquette, an undersized Big East squad with a lot of heart, to take down three seed New Mexico, who just hasn’t played anybody that good all year, and I like West Virginia to slow down Mizzou ‘s run-and-gun game and take the win.
In the Elite 8, Kentucky rolls past Wisconsin while West Virginia wins an all Big East matchup with Marquette. Kentucky behind the best point guard in the country, John Wall, will advance to the final Four.
Finally, the toughest region to predict: the south. There are three upsets I really like in this region. First is the 8-9 game with Cal and Louisville. Louisville, a team with two wins over Syracuse, is the better team and will take care of Cal, but you can still, with the seeding, call it an upset. The next upset is not really an upset either with the 4-13 game. Purdue has been HORRIBLE since losing star player Robbie Hummel. In fact, they only scored 11 points in the entire first half in their conference tournament game against Minnesota. Look for a past Cinderella, the Siena Saints, to take care of Purdue. The last upset, the one game that I’m going out on a limb on, is in the 6-11 matchup. Both Notre Dame and Old Dominion have been playing great basketball lately. The difference is that Old Dominion has some huge wins on the road this year. I like Old Dominion to slow down the pace and use their great size down low to take down the Irish.
Top-seeded Duke, Texas A&M, Baylor, Richmond, and Villanova will all win in the first round. In the second round, I like Duke to push through an extremely tough game against Louisville. Texas A&M will show Siena the door while an underrated three seed in Baylor will continue to impress by beating Old Dominion. The last game, I have to take Villanova, even though I don’t think they will win. Losers of seven of their last nine, a team with that kind of losing streak has NEVER made it to the Final Four. Could they lose to Richmond second round? Absolutely, but staying in a bracket mentality, I always will take the top two seeds at least two rounds. So ‘Nova gets the pick.
In the Sweet 16, Duke will beat Texas A&M, and Baylor from the Big 12, which received most of its losses against Kansas and Kansas State will beat Villanova. I see Baylor advancing to the Final Four with a win over Duke. This region could have as many as four or five potential teams that could make a run to the Final Four, making it the most unpredictable.
In the Final Four this year, I think Kansas will outshine Syracuse and disrupt the 2-3 zone while Kentucky will down Baylor in the other national semi-final. And my pick to win it all this year is Kansas, a team with one of the best coaches in America, Bill Self, a great backcourt with Xavier Henry and Sheron Collins, and a big earthmover down low in Cole Aldrich, who can take on all comers in the paint.
So there you have it, ladies and gentlemen: a completely laid out method to all of the madness ensuing this weekend across the college basketball world.
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